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What often works is your experience and a broad range of potent skillsets that allow you to grasp a hold of the complete scenario before jumping to conclusions and help you understand practically. Like we mentioned, your appetite for risk and backtesting results will work for you. Automation and practical applications are the keys here. Anto, who had been trading for 10 years, evolved his skillsets and adapted to the growing markets with the Executive Programme in Algorithmic Trading EPAT and is happily trading in this domain.
Let us try to recap what we have understood so far. Pairs Trading can be called a mean reversion strategy where we bet that the prices will revert to their historical trends. So far, we have gone through the concepts and now let us try to create a simple Pairs Trading strategy in Excel.
As the trading logic is coded in the cells of the sheet, you can improve the understanding by downloading and analyzing the files at your own convenience. Not just that, you can play around the numbers to obtain better results.
You might find suitable parameters that provide higher profits than specified in the article. We implement mean reversion strategy on this pair. Mean reversion is a property of stationary time series. Since we claim that the pair we have chosen is mean reverting we should test whether it follows stationarity.
Plotting of the logarithmic ratio of Nifty to MSCI makes it appear to be mean reverting with a mean value of 2. The results under Cointegration output table shows that the price series is stationary and hence mean-reverting.
Having determined that the mean reversion holds true for the chosen pair we proceed with specifying assumptions and input parameters. The market data and trading parameters are included in the spreadsheet from the 12th row onwards. So when the reference is made to column D, it should be obvious that the reference commences from D12 onwards. Column F calculates 10 candle average. Since 10 values are needed for average calculations, there are no values from F12 to F Consider cell F Its corresponding cell A22 has a value of Similar logic holds for column G where the standard deviation is calculated.
Column I represents the trading signal. When we say buy, we have a long position in 3 lots of Nifty and have a short position in 1 lot of MSCI. Similarly, when we say sell, we have a long position in 1 lot of MSCI and have a short position in 3 lots of Nifty thus squaring off the position.
We have one open position all the time. Once the position is taken, we track the position using the Status column, i. In each new row while the position is continuing, we check whether the stop loss as mentioned in cell C6 or take profit as mentioned in cell C7 is hit.
The stop loss is given the value of USD , i. While the position does not hit either stop loss or take profit, we continue with that trade and ignore all signals that are appearing in column I. Once the trade hits either the stop loss or take profit, we again start looking at the signals in column I and open a new trading position as soon as we have a Buy or Sell signal in column I.
Column M represents the trading signals based on the input parameters specified. Column I already has trading signals and M tells us about the status of our trading position i. If the trade is not exited, we carry forward the position to the next candle by repeating the value of the status column in the previous candle.
Column L represents Mark to Market. It specifies the portfolio position at the end of time period. So when we trade our position is the appropriate price difference depending on whether we are bought or sold multiplied by the number of lots. Column O calculates the cumulative profit. The output table has some performance metrics tabulated. Loss trades are the trades that resulted in losing money on the trading positions.
Profitable trades are the successful trades ending in gaining cause. Average profit is the ratio of total profit to the total number of trades. Thus, we have understood the concept behind Pairs trading strategy, including correlation and cointegration. We also took a look at Z-score and defined the entry and exit points when we are executing a pairs trading strategy. We also created an Excel model for our Pairs Trading strategy! If you want to dig deeper and try to find suitable pairs to apply the strategy, you can go through the blog on K-Means algorithm.
EPAT is designed to equip you with the right skill sets to be a successful trader. Enroll now! Disclaimer: All data and information provided in this article are for informational purposes only. All information is provided on an as-is basis. By Anupriya Gupta Pairs trading is supposedly one of the most popular types of trading strategy. What is z-score? Defining Entry points Defining Exit points A simple Pairs trading strategy in Excel Explanation of the model Statistics play a crucial role in the first challenge of deciding the pair to trade.
Correlation Though not common, a few Pairs Trading strategies look at correlation to find a suitable pair to trade. Thus, one should be careful of using only correlation for pairs trading. Let us now move to the next section in pairs trading basics, ie Cointegration. Cointegration The most common test for Pairs Trading is the cointegration test.
How to choose stocks for pairs trading? Assumption: n, the hedge ratio is constant. How to calculate z-score? Defining Entry points Let us denote the Spread as s. A simple Pairs trading strategy in Excel This excel model will help you to: Learn the application of mean reversion Understand of Pairs Trading Optimize trading parameters Understand significant returns of statistical arbitrage Why should you download the trading model?
Explanation of the model In this example, we consider the MSCI and Nifty pair as both of them are stock market indexes. Assumptions For simplification purpose, we ignore bid-ask spreads. Prices are available at 5 minutes intervals and we trade at the 5-minute closing price only. Since this is discrete data, squaring off of the position happens at the end of the candle i. Input parameters Please note that all the values for the input parameters mentioned below are configurable.
Column D represents Nifty price. Outputs The output table has some performance metrics tabulated. Now it is your turn! First, download the model Modify the parameters and study the backtesting results Run the model for other historical prices Modify the formula and strategy to add new parameters and indicators! Play with logic! Explore and study! Comment below with your results and suggestions Summary Thus, we have understood the concept behind Pairs trading strategy, including correlation and cointegration.
Login to Download Disclaimer: All data and information provided in this article are for informational purposes only. Share Article:. Want to join EPAT? Strategies that require definitions from future pricing or large historical data are usually curve fitted. On paper it may look great, but in real trade scenario, the results may be completely different. The regression channel chart did not pass the out of sample curve fitting test. As can be seen below, when the look back period is amended to Days, the signal would be completely different.
One of the solutions for curve fitting in pairs trading is to reduce the linear regression period to a shorter window or time frame. Although this can result in sensitivity to volatile movements, this reduces the potential risk to forward looking scenarios.
Traders should also be aware of changes in the correlation and cointegration values of the pair, as these can shift quickly due to market mispricing or global economic and political events. Home Sign In Contact Us. Example 2: Gold and Silver 30 Day Correlation: Cointegration and Correlation Technicals Now that we determined that gold and silver show the highest correlation and cointegration, we need to analyse the technicals for specific entry and exit points.
A chart showing gold, silver and their correlation The diagram had two possible entry and exit points over the one year period. Pitfall With reference to the above example, we can see a number of issues that could greatly impact performance. A moving window for the regression channel provides fewer opportunities for curve fitting Solution One of the solutions for curve fitting in pairs trading is to reduce the linear regression period to a shorter window or time frame. You may also like.
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